Quake drills to prepare for a Magnitude 7.2

Don't wait for it to come. Prepare now for the M7.2 quake that will hit Metro Manila. Ask your local officials about their earthquake preparedness activities and participate. The following news stories are from the Philippine Daily Inquirer:

Philippine schools to hold quake drills

02/26/2009

Agence France-Presse

Some 43,000 schools across the Philippines are to take part in simultaneous evacuation drills to test the country's ability to cope with the threat posed by strong earthquakes, the government said Thursday.

Students in QC join earthquake drill

from http://www.inquirer.net/vdo/player.php?vid=2336&pageID=7

QUEZON CITY, Philippines—Students from the San Francisco High School in Quezon City join an earthquake drill. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology director Renato Solidum says Phivolcs, together with the National Disaster Coordinating Council-Department of Public Order and Safety, has been holding earthquake and fire drills since 2006. Video report by INQUIRER.net reporter Izah Morales.

Prepare, instead of worrying about the big earthquake

There is an urgent need to let people know about the Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake that will hit Metro Manila anytime.  Experts are certain that it will come and how strong it would be.  We must prepare and not waste our time worrying about it.  The following is from the Philippine Daily Inquirer where Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum, Jr. had been quoted:

According to Solidum, it is "something to worry about, not with a sense of panic but concern, so that we can prepare for a big earthquake in advance."

He stressed "we need to have a culture of not only the knowledge of what might happen, but also the culture of preparedness."

A Phivolcs report given the Inquirer shows that what happened in the Philippines before, such as an earthquake with magnitude 7, can happen again.

"The likelihood of these destructive quakes occurring again in the future is indeed very strong," the report said.

Solidum said the West Valley Fault, or WVF, formerly known as the Marikina Fault, one of the country's active faults, generated a magnitude 7 quake when it last moved about 200 years ago.

"We can't say when exactly it will move again. But considering its long repose period, the probability of it moving again soon is increasing and increasing," he pointed out.

Movements along these faults and in several trenches, in addition to the two seismically rambunctious tectonic plates where the Philippine archipelago sits, generate five up to close to 30 quakes a day.

"But if you look at our statistics during the past 400 years we already have 90 destructive quakes, meaning one in every four or five years, there should be a strong quake. But the last strong one was in the late 1990s," said Solidum.

from The Philippine Daily Inquirer (May 18, 2008). Safety checks on schools sought as part of quake precaution. 

http://archive.inquirer.net/view.php?db=1&story_id=137330

M7.2 Quake to Hit Manila

An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 in the Richter Scale is overdue and could hit the country soon and affect at least 38 percent of all residential buildings in Metro Manila, the government said yesterday.

. . .

Solidum said a 7.2 magnitude quake could hit the country once the fault line in Marikina Valley moved.

"Our estimate is that at least 38 percent of all residential buildings in Metro Manila will be affected, as well as 14 percent of all high-rise buildings and 35 percent of all government buildings," he said.

from Powerful earthquake 'overdue' By Joyce Pangco Pañares 06/07/2006
Manila Standard Today < http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/?page=news06_june07_2006>

Are you ready to rock with an M 7.2 Earthquake?

Are you ready if a magnitude 7.0 earthquakewith an epicenter originating from the Valley Fault System (VFS, Marikina) jolts you right now at your office? Is your family at home ready? What preparations have you done at this point? Have you bolted your tall cabinets and other freestanding furnitures to adjacent walls and fastened flourescent lights to the ceiling? Have you stocked a first aid cabinet with supplies? Does your office have a well-developed emergency plan? Does your office or company have an emergency team that is tasked to execute your emergency plan? How often have you conducted an emergency drill this year? Has your office or company coordinated with local authorities: the fire department, the police department and emergency rescue services for an evaluation of your emergency plan? Do you know how to administer first aid? How often have you donated blood this year? 

I have no intention to alarm you but aren't you curious why the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) is promoting a culture of preparedness and the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) has been checking the safety of public structures (like schools) for about two years now. The most recent activity of the DPWH is the proposed removal of large advertising billboards and soon, the demolition of old public school buildings. 

"The Marikina Valley Fault, located in the eastern part of the study area, is the fault expected to cause the largest impact in the metropolis. Recent studies revealed that the Valley Fault caused at least 2, perhaps 4, earthquakes within the last 1400 years, the approximate return period is less than 500 years, and no event along the West Valley Fault is not known after the 16th century. This means that active phases of the Valley Faults are approaching. Many research studies indicate that the estimated magnitude will be around 7 or more."

from MMEIRS Map & Database Output Navigation System:

http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/Html/AboutStudy.htm

Accessed on Feb. 1, 2006

If the 16th Century is from 1500 to 1599, and we add 500 years (earthquake return period), that would give us 2000 to 2099.

CONCLUSIONS: MAGNITUDE AND FREQUENCY OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE MARIKINA VALLEY FAULT SYSTEM 
Empirical relations between rupture lengths and magnitudes of historic earthquakes in similar tectonic environments also argue for earthquakes of magnitude 6-7 on the Marikina Valley fault system. The ~30-km-long northern half of the west Marikina Valley fault, whose trace is marked by young, fault-related landforms, corresponds with earthquakes of this size. Although there is a possibility that a much longer section of the fault ruptured during earthquakes as large as magnitude 7.5, landforms suggesting repeated rupture of the west Marikina Valley fault southward beyond the Pasig River have yet to be identified ( Fig. 1B). The geomorphically expressed trace of the east Marikina Valley fault is even shorter (18 km long), so the chance of an earthquake larger than magnitude 7 on the faults of the Marikina Valley system seems small. 

from The U.S. Geological Survey Site: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/pacnw/paleo/manila/index.html

from Fostering Disaster-Resistant Communities in the Philippines, http://www.pdc.org/PDCNewsWebArticles/2005MarikinaCity/

The image above is a portion of Marikina City, showing Barangays Barangka, Tañong, Provident Villages, and Jesus Dela Peña.  A part of the fault line,  the dark jagged area is very clear in the image. A red underline marks it on the image. Do you see the Marikina River forming a "U"? On its left is where Riverbanks Mall can be located. Above that "U" is Loyola Memorial Park.  In addition, there are several schools, colleges and universities that lie directly on the fault line. 

"The Ateneo campus in Loyola Heights is especially vulnerable to such an earthquake, since it is in the vicinity of the Valley Fault System (VFS).

The VFS, formerly known as the Marikina Valley Fault System, is a system of faults that runs across the eastern side of Metro Manila.

This fault system stretches from the mountainous areas of Rizal in the north, passing through Quezon City, Marikina, Taguig, and Muntinlupa, all the way to Tagaytay in the south."

from "After earthquake disaster in Asia: Is the Ateneo prepared? " By Kris Danielle P. Suarez 
TheGUIDON Online © 2005. http://stellaire.amidal.com/index.php?get=2005020108 

Critical Information on Earthquake preparedness

Please allow me to share some critical information why earthquake preparedness is very urgent.

Here, I have provided some official earthquake preparedness materials that are downloadable. Please ignore all other unauthorized suggestions being spread irresponsibly through email, like those with the subject "Earthquake tips" and features something called "The triangle of Life." These are not endorsed by any recognized authority on the subject and may even endanger people's lives.

"Solidum urges people not to believe the "Triangle of Life" article circulating in the Internet. " 
from What to do in case an earthquake hits By Cyril Bonabente, PDI Research Inquirer. Posted date: July 16, 2006. http://newsinfo.inq7.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view_article.php?article_id=10071

The Metro Manila earthquake scenario that the Phivolcs determined on October 2004 remains a great concern.(1) This can now be viewed in the light of the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean M9.0 - M9.3 Earthquake that triggered the killer Tsunamis.(2) (Before, what we remember more was the 1990 Luzon M7.8 Earthquake).

Earthquake drill set in public schools nationwide - INQ7.net
SOME one million elementary and high school students and teachers from 40000
public schools will participate in a nationwide earthquake drill on Tuesday, ...
http://news.inq7.net/breaking/index.php?index=2&story_id=79691

As directed by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, a nationwide earthquake drill for schools was carried out at the start of the school year on 20 June 2006 at 9:00 AM. Coordinated by the Office of Civil Defense-National Disaster Coordinating Council (OCD-NDCC) in collaboration with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology-Department of Science and Technology (PHIVOLCS-DOST) and the Department of Education (DepEd). 

from http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/

One year later, in October 12, 2005, Malacañang continues its earthquake preparedness activities.(3) You see, the scenario has been described by Phivolcs as inevitable...that a magnitude 7.0 to 7.2 earthquake can hit Metro Manila anytime. It is not a question of whether it will or will not occurs, it is a question of when it will occur, so we have all the reasons tobe prepared.

It has been 400-500 years since the last major earthquake. Such major event happens on the VFS every 400-500 years, if not 200 years. To read further, check out th e August 2002 JICA Study(4) and the previous 2000 study conducted by the Geologic Hazards Team of the Central Region U.S. Geological Survey.(5)

To personally monitor the occurrence of earthquakes, please visit:
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/EQLatest.html

Notes and sources:
(1) "The Philippine Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) issued this call yesterday to Metro Manila residents following a study showing that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake could hit the metropolis anytime and could kill at least 147,000 people in seconds."
Cariaso, Bella. "Believe it or not: The big one is coming-- or going" In People's Journal, October 28, 2004,
http://72.14.203.104/search?q=cache:bwVbLNaZs5MJ:www.journal.com.ph/news.asp%3Fpid%3D2%26sid%3D1%26nid%3D14549%26month%3D10%26day%3D28%26year%3D2004+phivolcs+earthquake+to+hit+Metro+Manila&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1 
"The Magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Metro Manila is not a prediction but a SCENARIO that is useful for urban planning and formulation of disaster mitigation strategies."
Phivolcs. "Clarification on the Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake Scenario in Metro Manila,"
http://www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/clarification/Clarification1.htm
(2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake 
(3) "Director Renato Solidum Jr. of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) confirmed that a strong
earthquake is imminent to hit Metro Manila...." 
Office of the Press Secretary, Malacañang Palace, "Palace orders DPWH to check safety of public structures", October 12, 2005, http://www.news.ops.gov.ph/archives2005/oct12.htm 
(4) "Metro Manila and Potential for Danger ....In and around Metro Manila, numerousearthquake sources exist, such as Valley Fault System (VFS), Philippine Faults, Lubang Faults, Manila Trench and Casiguran Faults. Among these, VFS, which transects the JICA Study area, is considered to cause the largest impact to Metro Manila area if it will become active. Recent studies show that VFS has ruptured twice to four times in the last 1400 years with a return period being approximately less than 500 years. And since no event of a major earthquake has been known along West Valley Fault since the 16th Century, active phases of the Valley Faults may be approaching. Results of many researches indicate that an estimated magnitude will be around 7 or higher."
JICA Newsletter. "Environmental Conservation and Disaster Prevention: JICA Works to Make a Comprehensive Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metro Manila",http://www.jica.go.jp/philippine/activities02_03.html
(5) "The first 14C-based paleoseismic study of an active fault in The Philippines shows that a right-lateral fault on the northeast edge of metropolitan Manila poses a greater seismic hazard than previously thought. Stratigraphic, soil, and 14C data from exposures across the northern part of the west Marikina Valley fault indicate a recurrence interval of 200-400 years for magnitude 6-7 earthquakes on the fault."
Nelson A. and Personius S., "Multiple large earthquakes in the past 1500 years on a fault in metropolitan Manila, The Philippines" In Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, 2000.http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/pacnw/paleo/manila/index.html